Friday, August 12, 2011

Ada County July Market Report-GOOD NEWS

I am including the monthly report given by Marc Lebowitz of the Ada County Association of Realtors. Sales are up, the percentage of distressed sales are continuing to decline, days on market are declining, so basically good news!

"July sales were 564 in Ada County, an increase of 42% compared to sales in July 2010…yep…that’s right 42%!

Historically, July sales are 9.75% below June levels. July 2011 had 8.6% fewer sales than June 2011.

I am really happy to report that year-to-date 2011 sales, which total 3,580 are ahead of YTD 2010 sales; 3,524. As of the end of July we are 56 units ahead of year-to-date 2010! That’s a 1.5% increase.

Of our total sales in July… 42% were distressed….down 5% from June 2011. In January 2011 57% of our sales were distressed. (Short sales 15% and REO’s 27%). Distressed sales continue to cast a long shadow over the market, but they are no longer the “majority” of transactions!

For homes sold in July, the average number of “Days on Market” was 79. This is down from 89 days last year this time and down from 93 days in January 2011.

Pending sales at the end of July were 937; and decrease of 3% from the end of June.  Looking back at pending sales from March 2011 to July 2011, we see an average near 1,000 at the end of each month.  This is another sign of the long term recovery we are experiencing. The percentage of pending sales in distress was essentially unchanged from June, totaling 43% overall. We are now at four consecutive months below 50%.

July median home price held on to gains made in June.  Overall median price was $152,750; down 6.6% from July 2010. This is the second highest median price we’ve had so far this year.

New Homes median price for June 2011 was $212,000; the same as June 2010.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of July stayed below 2,600 for the second month in a row.  This is down 2% from June and 33% less than last year at this time. Currently available inventory compares to early 2006.

At the same time, the percentage of active inventory that is distressed dropped almost 1% from June to 33%.  This is the fifth consecutive monthly decline and keeps us below the 40% levels set last spring….when we were on the increase.

In Ada County we have 4 months of inventory on hand…historically this number defines a strong “seller’s market”.  The price category in shortest supply is <$119,000 with 2.8 months available. This is closely followed by the $200,000 to $249,000 with 4 months.  Consumption of inventory is expanding to all price ranges. In the price ranges from $250,000 to $499,000 we have less than 6 months of available inventory. These are the lowest numbers in more than a year!

There is also positive news on some of the higher priced inventory; $500,000 to $699,999 inventory dropped for a third month in a row to 7.2!

We continue to “benefit” from inventory levels much lower than national average.

So…what about the impact of the last few days on our recovery? That sort of depends on who you’re asking.

This morning the Wall Street Journal headline is: “U.S. stocks surge as investors eye a rare dose of encouraging jobs data and stronger revenue at Cisco”. As of noon today the Dow was up nearly 400 points.

Inman News reports: “Market turmoil has home buyers on edge” but then says: “So far, investor flight to the relative safety of bonds and mortgage-backed securities that fund most home loans has pushed the cost of borrowing down -- a boon for both homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance.”

NAR continues to advocate for all of us in our continued opposition to “policies that ensure qualified borrowers can obtain safe and sound mortgage financing. NAR called on regulators to revise the unnecessarily high down payment requirements of the Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) exemption from risk retention requirements under the Dodd-Frank Act. A broad QRM definition will encourage sound lending and reduce future defaults without delaying or denying homeownership to millions of creditworthy borrowers.”

The Federal Reserve Board has pledged to keep interest rates at near zero until 2013.

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index is at 176.6; the third highest on record.  The index measures the relationship between median home price, median family income and mortgage interest rates; the higher the index, the greater household purchasing power.

So…you decide who to listen to.

To paraphrase an old southern saying: “If the Lord’s willing, and the creek don’t rise”, we’re going to continue to push our way out of this."

 

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