by Marc Lebowitz, RCE, CAE
ACAR Executive Director
Single family home sales in February 2014 were 422 in Ada County, an decrease of 10% compared to February 2013. January sales were strong, and, when linked with February gives us a YTD total sales exactly equal to this time last yea; 836 homes sold.
In February more than 50% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000. Sales of homes priced above $160,000 were up over February 2013.
Days on Market for February were 66. That’s down from February, but still up significantly from December’s 59. In February 2013, Days on Market was 72.
New homes sold in February totaled 96; down 9% from last year.
Existing home sales were 326; down 10%.
Historically, February sales increase from January by an average of 3%. February 2014 posted a 4% increase over January.
Of the total sales in February, 13% were distressed; up 1% from last month. In February 2013, 23% of sales were distressed.
For the month of February, REO sales (62% of Distressed; 34 total sales) exceeded Short Sales (38% of Distressed; 20 total sales).
Pending sales at the end of February were 951; down 10% from February 2013.
Of Pending sales in distress (12%), there are slightly more Short Sales (57%; 65 sales) than REO’s (43%; 49 sales).
February median home price was $199,650; up 11% from February 2013.
New Homes median price for February was $320,500; up 23% from February 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 6% to $169,900.
The number of houses available for sale at the end of February increased slightly from January 2014 to 2,127. This reverses four consecutive month of decrease. This is 23% more than last year at this time…which we need heading into Spring.
We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.
Of the total active listings, 10% are distressed, down 1% from January.
Of our Distressed Inventory, 67% is Short Sales (142) and 33% is REO (70).
In Ada County we now have 4.7 months of inventory on hand, up a little from the end of January.
The price category in shortest supply is <$100K where we have 1.4 months.
From $100,000 to $119,000 we have 2.1 months available.
From $120,000 to $160,000 we have just under 3 months available inventory.
From $160,000 to $300,000 we have nearly 5 months…except for the very popular $250,000 – $300,000 which has only 4.5 month’s supply available.
Above $300,000 we have a 5 month’s supply. Above $500,000 the supply is closer to 14 months. Remembering that 6 months of available inventory describes a “stable real estate market”; it looks like we are heading into a period of “normal” like we haven’t seen in several years.
Of sales in February, the most popular price point was $120,000 to $160,000 (26%); followed by $160,000 to $200,000 (14%) and $200,000 to $250,000 with 12%.
So…what’s next?
Sales did hit a Winter wall in February. We are now chasing a super strong Spring and Summer 2013. March 2013 sales were 550. Can we increase sales from 422 to 550 with Pending sales where they are? It’s going to be close.
February is typically our weakest month for median home price. February 2014 was pretty strong. This should continue into the Summer.
We are seeing more and more data that says that the Millennials (the big homebuyer wild card) are feeling better and better about home ownership. Nearly 90% of Millennial buyers say “homeownership is a good investment”.
This is the pent up demand we’ve been waiting to see activate.
Bottom line…its going to be a complicated first quarter for real estate.
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