Thursday, June 14, 2012

May sales slow way down as median prices jump…is this the start of a new trend?











































by marclebowitz



Sales in May 2012 were 604 in Ada County, an increase of 1% compared to May 2011.   Year-to-date sales are 2,632; 9% over the first four months of 2011.

Dollar volume for May was up 24%!

New homes sold in May increased 100% over new homes sold in May of 2011!!…and are up 65% YTD.

Historically, May sales outpace April by an average of 2% or less.  May 2012 sales decreased by 6% compared to April 2012.

Of our total sales in May… 30% were distressed….down 5% from April 2012. In May 2011, 53% of our sales were distressed.  In January 56% of distressed properties were REOs and 44% were short sales.  In May the ratio was 61% short sales and 39% REOs. This is two consecutive months with short sales being the larger percentage of distressed properties sold. Whether this is a short term effect or a real indication that we are clearing out the “shadow inventory” remains to be seen in coming months.

Pending sales at the end of May were 1,253; an increase of 4.8% from the end of April. In general pending sales in May are the highest of the year.  The percentage of pending sales in distress decreased 3% from April, totaling 28% overall. This is the lowest number we’ve seen in several years. We were averaging close to 50% of pendings in distress over that last five months; but have decreased steadily since January.  Of Pending sales in distress, short sales outnumbered REO’s 2 to 1.

At the end of May, we had 25% more sales pending than at the end of May 2011.

Hold on to your hat…May median home price was $179,900; up 25% from May 2011; and up 14% from March 2012. Median home price is up 30% since January of this year and above $150,000 for four months running. The last time we saw a median price this strong was in early 2009 (when we passed it going in the wrong direction).

New Homes median price for May was $227,000; an increase of 4.5% from May 2011.

The number of houses available increased slightly for the second consecutive month. At the end of May our total active inventory was 2,043 homes. This is up 2% from April and 23% less than last year at this time.  Possibly the increase in median price is enabling some real move up buyer activity.

At the same time, the percentage of distressed active inventory dipped 3% to 27%. This is the lowest number we’ve seen in several years. We have been hovering between 33% and 36% for the last year. We remain well below the 40% levels set last spring….when we were on the increase. Of our Distressed Inventory 92% is Short Sales and only 8% is REO.

The price point with the largest increase in available properties is $200,000 to $250,000 which added 25 units in May.

In Ada County we now have less than 3.3 months of inventory on hand.

The price category in shortest supply is <$119,000 with 1.7 months. In the range of $120,000 to $159,999 we have 2.6 months. All price points up to $250,000 have less than 4 month’s supply. We have benefited for nearly two years from inventory levels much lower than national average.

Multiple offers are much more prevalent; now becoming the norm.

Based on May sold data, our most desirable price point is $120,000 to $200,000 which increased by 20% from March; The next largest price point sold is <$120,000 at 18% of all sales; down 8% from last month.  The biggest increase was in sales between $200,000 and $250,000; which were up 300% from January 2012.

Comparing Sales to Inventory, for key price points… @<$120,000 we sold 43% of all that we had in May; for $120,000 to $160,000 we sold 36% of all that was available; for $160,0000 to $200,000 we sold 34% of the total available.

The question I was asked last week sums up what most of us are thinking: “How long can we continue to improve at this pace?”  I’ll let you know next month.






 

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