A question I receive often when visiting with people about the real estate market in the Boise-Nampa area is; what are property values going to do? And I often state that I wish I had my crystal ball up and running! So I found it interesting when I listened to a recorded presentation from the National Association of Realtors last week.
Lawrence Yun, the senior economist of the National Association of Realtors, forecasts that there will be no "meaningful change" in housing values over the next two years. The MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey, which is a result of 100 economists polled quarterly, expect prices to go down about 1% this year, and up 1% next year. This panel also expects cumulative appreciation to be about 10% over the next 5 years. (Mr Yun agrees.) Will Idaho follow suit? Crystal ball anyone?
It was also interesting for me to note that individually there was wide, significant dispersion of the panelist's individual home forecasts. So even though they are "experts," their crystal balls show different things and only time will have the final say.
In an additional note, distressed sales, in Mr Yun's opinion, will remain a noticeable portion of the market, at least one-third of sales for the rest of the year. Distressed sales currently are resulting in 40% of house sales nationally. Locally our numbers are similar. He also reported seeing an increase in investor activity nationally and we are locally as well.
What do you think? What will property values do in our valley?
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