Sunday, July 13, 2014

June Market Report for Ada County – Longer Busier Days

by Marc Lebowitz, RCE, CAE

ACAR Executive Director

Single family home sales in June 2014 were 798 in Ada County, a decrease of 3% compared to June 2013.   YTD total sales are down 2% compared to this time last year; 3,682 homes sold compared to 3,776.

In June 76% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000.

In June sales of homes in the $300,000 – $400,000 were up 25% from May 2014 to 140. This category had the greatest sales increase month-over-month and was the third highest sales category behind $120,000 - $160,000 and $160,000 - $200,000.

Days on Market for June were 46; one day less than last month. In June 2013, Days on Market was 46.

New homes sold in June totaled 151; down 10% from last year; but…up 13% over May.

Existing home sales were 647; down 2% from June 2013.

Historically, comparing June sales to May is sort of a mixed bag.  Two times between 2001 and 2014 June sales were ahead of May sales by double digits. Six times the increase was marginal. Three times sales went down. June 2014 posted a 2% increase over May.

Pending sales at the end of June were 1126; down 18% from June 2013. Pending sales have trailed behind previous year’s pending sales for eleven consecutive months.

June median home price was $218,650; up 4% from June 2013. Our YTD median price is $207,500; up 8% over last year.

New Homes median price for June was $325,900; up 22% from June 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 2% to $199,900.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of June increased 4% from May 2014 to 2,789.  This is an increase we really need…maybe.  This is 32% more than last year at this time.

We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.

The price point with the largest increase month-over-month is $250,000 – $300,000 at 11%. The next highest is $200,000 – $250,000 with 10%. Below $160,000 there is no increase in availability.

In Ada County we now have 3.5 months of inventory on hand, down 5% from the end of May.

The price categories in shortest supply are $100,000 - $120,000 and $120,000 to $160,000 which both have 1.8 months; actually up a little from last month.

From $160,000 to $400,000 we have 3.6 months; not much change from last month.

Of sales in June, the most popular price point was $160,000 to $200,000 (21%); and $120,000 to $160,000 (20%) followed by  $300,000 to $400,000 with 17%.

So…what’s next?

I predicted June’s sales would be ahead of June 2013. I missed it by 28 sales. When  you look at the sales trend graph you can see how close we are to last year’s booming Summer. Looking a the same chart you can see that last July was huge. Are we going to repeat that. I don’t think so. I am still convinced that the third quarter wikk be our recovery quarter and put us back ahead of last year.

I was right on the median price prediction; but I think that will slide back closer to $205,000 in July.

NPR reported yesterday that the Fed was going to exit “quantitative easing” in October. This will, almost certainly, increase mortgage rates as we go into the fourth quarter.

We also saw last week that unemployment numbers are down to 6%.

All in all, I’m still feeling pretty good about how we will finish he year.

Boise found its way on to a few more “Best Of” lists” in June. We scored on “Biking and Beer”, “Family Friendly”, “Best Looking Men” and “Best Secret Ski Towns” (McCall actually, but close enough) and dodged “Most Expensive” and “Most Stressful”.

We also read that the Greenbelt was the place in town to find the smartest happiest Boiseans. Tell me something I don’t know.


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