May Market Report-Why I’m Still Smiling
June 11, 2014 by Marc Lebowitz · Leave a Comment
Talk about what’s happening in our local market and some of the consumer data that NAR has assembled to help us better design our scope of services for targeted clients.
First the market…
Single family home sales in May 2014 were 783 in Ada County, a decrease of 6% compared to May 2013. YTD total sales are down 2% compared to this time last year; 2,881 homes sold compared to 2,950.
In May 76% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000. This graphically portrays the smaller role that first –time buyers has on our market. In 2010 more than 52% of buyers were “first-time”. Today the number of first-time buyers is closer to 30%.
In May sales of homes in the $120,00 – $160,000 were up 21% from April 2014 to 162. This category had the greatest sales increase month-over-month.
Days on Market for May were 47. That’s down eight days from April. In May 2013, Days on Market was 46.
New homes sold in May totaled 133; down 18% from last year; but…up 29% over April.
Existing home sales were 650; down 3% from May 2013.
Historically, May sales set the tone for the Summer. May 2014 posted a 18% increase over April. That’s the second highest since 2006.
(Review Chart – Keeping pace with 2013…some months will be up and some down. )
Of the total sales in May, 6% were distressed; down 4% from last month.
Pending sales at the end of May were 1161; down 19% from May 2013. Pending sales have trailed behind previous year’s pending sales for ten consecutive months.
Pending sales in distress are 7%.
May median home price was $209,000; up 7% from May 2013. Our YTD median price is $205,000; up 9% over last year.
New Homes median price for May was $299,900; up 10% from May 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 9% to $195,375.
The number of houses available for sale at the end of May increased 5% from April 2014 to 2,680. This is an increase we really need…maybe. This is 41% more than last year at this time.
We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.
The price point with the largest increase month-over-month is $160,000 – $200,000 at 12%. The next highest is $200,000 – $250,000 with 10%. Below $160,000 there is no increase in availability.
Of the total active listings, 7% are distressed, unchanged from April.
In Ada County we now have 3.7 months of inventory on hand, down 18% from the end of Apil.
The price category in shortest supply is <$120,000 where we have 1.4 months; actually up a little from last month.
From $120,000 to $160,000 we have 2.1 months available inventory.
From $160,000 to $300,000 we have 3.6 months; all down from last month..
Above $300,000 we have a 4 month’s supply. Above $500,000 the supply is closer to 9 months.
Of sales in May, the most popular price point was $160,000 to $200,000 (21%); and $120,000 to $160,000 (20%) followed by $200,000 to $250,000 with 18%.
So…what’s next?
Sales in May, although behind last year, show a stronger month-over-month increase than any of the last three years.
Chances are that we will continue to lag behind some months and be barely ahead in others.
Median price seems to be holding tight to the $200K level. This will go up “a little” as we head into summer.
New studies reveal that student debt is a bigger retardant on new homebuyers. Three out of four college grads say they have to wait longer to retire more of that debt before they can afford to own their first home.
On Monday, President Obama took executive action that will allow millions more people to cap their student loan payments at 10 percent of their annual incomes – an option that most, but not all, student borrowers have had since 2010.
He also urged Congress to approve a bill that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) of Massachusetts has sponsored, and that the Senate plans to take up this week, which would allow some 25 million borrowers to refinance student loans at lower rates. And he announced a number of other measures around communication and education for student borrowers, to allow them to make more informed decisions and take advantage of the options open to them
The CFPB website also offer resources
There is demand and ability, we’ve just got to have the right product.
Bottom line…its going to be a cooler summer than last year.
First the market…
Single family home sales in May 2014 were 783 in Ada County, a decrease of 6% compared to May 2013. YTD total sales are down 2% compared to this time last year; 2,881 homes sold compared to 2,950.
In May 76% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000. This graphically portrays the smaller role that first –time buyers has on our market. In 2010 more than 52% of buyers were “first-time”. Today the number of first-time buyers is closer to 30%.
In May sales of homes in the $120,00 – $160,000 were up 21% from April 2014 to 162. This category had the greatest sales increase month-over-month.
Days on Market for May were 47. That’s down eight days from April. In May 2013, Days on Market was 46.
New homes sold in May totaled 133; down 18% from last year; but…up 29% over April.
Existing home sales were 650; down 3% from May 2013.
Historically, May sales set the tone for the Summer. May 2014 posted a 18% increase over April. That’s the second highest since 2006.
(Review Chart – Keeping pace with 2013…some months will be up and some down. )
Of the total sales in May, 6% were distressed; down 4% from last month.
Pending sales at the end of May were 1161; down 19% from May 2013. Pending sales have trailed behind previous year’s pending sales for ten consecutive months.
Pending sales in distress are 7%.
May median home price was $209,000; up 7% from May 2013. Our YTD median price is $205,000; up 9% over last year.
New Homes median price for May was $299,900; up 10% from May 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 9% to $195,375.
The number of houses available for sale at the end of May increased 5% from April 2014 to 2,680. This is an increase we really need…maybe. This is 41% more than last year at this time.
We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.
The price point with the largest increase month-over-month is $160,000 – $200,000 at 12%. The next highest is $200,000 – $250,000 with 10%. Below $160,000 there is no increase in availability.
Of the total active listings, 7% are distressed, unchanged from April.
In Ada County we now have 3.7 months of inventory on hand, down 18% from the end of Apil.
The price category in shortest supply is <$120,000 where we have 1.4 months; actually up a little from last month.
From $120,000 to $160,000 we have 2.1 months available inventory.
From $160,000 to $300,000 we have 3.6 months; all down from last month..
Above $300,000 we have a 4 month’s supply. Above $500,000 the supply is closer to 9 months.
Of sales in May, the most popular price point was $160,000 to $200,000 (21%); and $120,000 to $160,000 (20%) followed by $200,000 to $250,000 with 18%.
So…what’s next?
Sales in May, although behind last year, show a stronger month-over-month increase than any of the last three years.
Chances are that we will continue to lag behind some months and be barely ahead in others.
Median price seems to be holding tight to the $200K level. This will go up “a little” as we head into summer.
New studies reveal that student debt is a bigger retardant on new homebuyers. Three out of four college grads say they have to wait longer to retire more of that debt before they can afford to own their first home.
On Monday, President Obama took executive action that will allow millions more people to cap their student loan payments at 10 percent of their annual incomes – an option that most, but not all, student borrowers have had since 2010.
He also urged Congress to approve a bill that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) of Massachusetts has sponsored, and that the Senate plans to take up this week, which would allow some 25 million borrowers to refinance student loans at lower rates. And he announced a number of other measures around communication and education for student borrowers, to allow them to make more informed decisions and take advantage of the options open to them
The CFPB website also offer resources
There is demand and ability, we’ve just got to have the right product.
Bottom line…its going to be a cooler summer than last year.
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