Thursday, October 13, 2011

Ada County Autumn Housing Stats Roundup

A great great synopsis from Marc Lebowitz of the Ada County Association of Realtors.






































2011 September sales were 564 in Ada County, an increase of 13% over September 2010

September sales YTD is 4,757; Up 7.2% over 2010 YTD. In July of 2011, we exceeded YTD 2010 sales for the first time in 2011. In August we improved to +6.1%. Now we have increased again.

September sales decreased 7.5% from August 2011's 605. Historically, September sales increase over Aug.

The change in the number of Pending Sales suggests that many transactions that were scheduled to close in September didn’t.

Of our total sales in September… 41% were distressed….down 4% from August 2011. In January 2011, 57% of our sales were distressed. (Short sales 17%, REO’s 22% and HUD sales 4%). Distressed sales continue to cast a long shadow over the market, but they are no longer the “majority” of transactions!

For homes sold in September, the average number of “Days on Market” was 73. This is down 8 days from last month. Down from 90 days last year this time and down from 93 days in January 2011.

Pending sales at the end of September were 868; a decrease of 1.5% from the end of August. Looking back at pending sales from March 2011 to September 2011, we see an average near 900 at the end of each month. The percentage of pending sales in distress increased 3% from August, totaling 47% overall. We are now at six consecutive months below 50%.

At the end of September, we had 22% more sales pending than at the end of September 2010.

September median home price decreased 6% from August. Overall median price was $147,500; down 7.8% from September 2010.

New Homes median price for September 2011 was $216,000; a 3.4% decrease from August 2011 (?); but still 25% higher than in September 2010.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of September fell to 2,325 for the first time since March 2006. This is down 6% from August and 24% less than last year at this time.

At the same time, the percentage of distressed active inventory remained steady from August at 35%. We have been hovering between 33% and 36% since May. We remain well below the 40% levels set last spring….when we were on the increase.

In Ada County we have 4 months of inventory on hand…historically this number defines a strong “seller’s market”. The price category in shortest supply is <$100,000 with 2 months available. This is closely followed by the $100,000 to $119,000 with 3 months and $200,000 to $249,000 with 4 months. Consumption of inventory is expanding to all price ranges. In the price ranges from $250,000 to $499,000 we have about 6 months of available inventory. These are the lowest numbers in more than a year and continue to show improvement

We continue to “benefit” from inventory levels much lower than national average.

The Federal Reserve launched “Operation Twist” late last month intending to drive down long term interest rates. Although most experts agree that lowering mortgage interest rates, which are already at the lowest level in more than 60 years and in many cases below 4%, won’t spur much in overall home sales. What it may do is increase refinancing, freeing up consumer money for other purchases and improve overall economic numbers.

Recently the Wall Street Journal, long critical of Washington’s efforts to boost housing has changed their tune. “We Can’t Ignore Housing Anymore” was the title of a commentary published last week. Citing Warren Buffet and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, WSJ said: (These efforts)…“won’t do much for housing if too many people won’t qualify for mortgages or can’t refinance because the value of their home has declined or they don’t have much equity.

That has to change. By regulatory fiat, where possible, more people who are current on their mortgage payments have to be able to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of rates near 4%.

That savings for many would go into additional spending, a stimulative measure, and would boost their economic psychology, which is important. Even if they used the savings to pay down their own debt it would do long-term good.

Someone also has to take a hard look at standards for initial mortgage qualification. Obviously, things became absurdly easy as the housing bubble inflated. But pendulums swing too far and experts should determine if there’s a middle ground that would allow more to qualify without excessive risk to lenders.

It’s time to stop trying to work around housing, and take it on”.

I couldn’t have put it better myself.






 

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